I am sure the sun will rise tomorrow regardless of tonights outcome. Elections rarely bring major change even in “tidal wave years.” If you think this election will be different I encourage you to read the Federalist Papers as to why and review the past 200 + years of our history to see what has happened every other time there has been a “wave” election.
I voted today early and turnout was about where it always is when I vote. I am hearing the same from friends across the country. Who knows who will show up today. The tone of this year’s contests where harsh but spirited. Competition is vital to the survival of our republic (again see Federalist Papers).
I hope those elected understand that what makes us great is our ability to come together to deal with problems. Let’s hope that Congressional Freshman take the time to read our founding documents and understand their role in our republic.
On today’s strategy room we talked about the mid terms and the Wiki Leaks. Again I pressed the argument that House seats are local affairs and candidates matter in statewide elections. Although the prevailing wind is pushing the GOP forward, they’re facing major headwinds due to poor candidate selection and in part due to the Tea Parties influence.
Some candidates around the nation are downright bizarre. We discussed Nevada’s Sharron Angle who is clearly not ready for prime time. Here in NY, the likely GOP nominee for the 1st Congressional District is a guy who made his millions outsourcing jobs to India. That should play well in this economy.
In Colorado, former GOP congressman Tom Tancredo is promising to run on a third party line. This comes as today the Democratic candidate has inched ahead of his likely GOP opponent for the first time all year. If Tancredo joins the race and pulls the right wing of the party away from the GOP candidate, the Democrat can’t lose. GOP Senate hopes are fading in Colorado as there leading candidate, Ken Buck, who claims to be a Tea Party member offended some when in a movement of honesty he referred to “Tea Party Birthers” as “dumb asses.” He could have chose his words more carefully, but he’s right. Of course, that remark could cost him the primary as it’s now against the law of the Tea Party to ever agree with Obama even when it comes to where he was born. Colorado looks like it will join Nevada as a state where the GOP will fail to pick up a seats due to candidate selection.
We also talked about the Wiki Leaks story now dominating the news. In reality there is little that we have learned from this that the American public hasn’t expected for some time. The war in Afghanistan is not going well and the Pakistanis at best aren’t much help at worst are actively working against us. This complicates the decisions the President must make in the coming months. July 2011 is coming up fast.
I would love your thoughts.
This week should be fun. In New York, Governor Paterson has called the State Legislature back to Albany for an “Extraordinary Session” It’s possible they will finalize the budget this week and tie up some of the loose ends left from June. One can hope.
Nationally its 100 days till the mid-term elections and there should be a flurry of activity this week. As I stated in an earlier post, the GOP should have a successful election season as is the trend, but the Tea Party has pushed the party so far to the right and forced so many primaries across the country that it will likely reduce the amount of seats they pick up. Even if this is a national referendum, House elections are local affairs and candidates matter.
I will be on Fox News Strategy Room Tuesday Morning at 10am talking politics. Log on to http://live.foxnews.com/strategy-room watch and send your questions and comments.
The conventional wisdom is that the GOP should come close to taking the majority in the House and pick up a few seats in the Senate in this year’s mid-term elections. The party of the President almost always loses seats in the mid-terms. This year will likely similar with one major difference. The Tea Party movement has produced many candidates so outside the mainstream that it’s possible, if not likely, the rising GOP tide will not lift their boats.
Case in point Sharron Angle. If you asked me in January what would happen to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in this years election I would have told you he would have plenty of time to enjoy Vegas come 2011. A funny thing happened on the way to the GOP victory party. They selected Tea Partier Sharron Angle in a contentious GOP primary. Angle is among the most conservative Senate candidates running this year. She is incredibly anti-government and has stated publicly on the record that Social Security should be eliminated. Now I know she is new to politics, but the first thing I was taught about the business is that Senior Citizen’s always vote. They also collect Social Security. In Nevada, Seniors make up 30% of the electorate, their children and grandchildren make up the other 70%. She has also suggested that if conservatives don’t win this year, they should consider “2nd Amendment Remedies.” Sharron if you’re saying what I think you are saying you’re suggesting treason. The Constitution has a remedy for that. This woman is so unprepared for the race that she refuses to meet with the press, local, national or otherwise. Senator McConnell, the minority leader, announced today that he will not go to Nevada to campaign for Angle. I am starting to like Senator Reid’s chances and I think Vegas will have to wait another 6 years for his retirement party.
All in all, the GOP is having an identity crisis when it comes to the Tea Party. We know what the Tea Party is against, but what are they for? If you’re a Republican candidate with an innovative idea for government, dare you campaign about it? I mean, its a new government program that may actually require government spending. What if you are an incumbent Congressman who secured an appropriation for a project? It’s going to be a tricky year. I know the GOP will pick up seats, but not as many as you think.